30. Is strategic foresight the EU's missing superpower?

Author

Maria Luísa Moreira
July 14, 2025 • Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

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We unpack key issues and debates in international affairs with a dash of analysis, curiosity and storytelling to make policy and diplomacy more accessible, engaging and human. Today that includes:

→ An editorial on EU strategic foresight
→ A news story that deserves your attention
→ Our guest-recommended brainfood and then jobs, tools and questions for diplomats at heart

The Cabinet asks…

Is strategic foresight the EU’s missing superpower?

When we talk about EU strategy, we often mean responses to war, to migration, to climate crises. But what if the deeper challenge is that the EU still struggles to anticipate, let alone shape, what comes next?

For all its global ambitions, its economic and political power, and even Von der Leyen’s call for a greater geopolitical positioning, the EU remains more reactive than visionary. Although not new to the EU, the concept of foresight, i.e. the discipline of exploring and anticipating possible future developments in order to shape the preferable future, could be the answer. The issue is that this analytical framework is often treated as a political accessory rather than what it should be: a central instrument of governance.

As Ricardo Borges de Castro argues in a conversation with The Diplomat’s Cabinet, the EU does not suffer from a lack of data or analysis, but rather from a poor institutional translation between strategic thinking and policy-making. Based on his years of experience inside and outside the European bubble, foresight, as Ricardo tells us, should consist of preparing the institutions for surprise and building governance models capable of acting before they are forced to react. At EU level, another major challenge is not necessarily just bureaucratic inertia, but the fact that national political leaders continue to have difficulty connecting and balancing long-term thinking with short-term political legitimacy.

So we ask: If the EU wants to be more than a crisis firefighter, how should it invest in creating tools (and trust) to predict what is to come?

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One story to watch

Denmark’s military service now includes women

What’s happening: 

Denmark has introduced mandatory military service for both men and women, citing growing threats from Russia and the need to modernize the armed forces.

Why it matters:

The new policy marks a major cultural and strategic shift, sparking debate across Europe on gender, security, and civic duty. It redefines the social contract in an era of heightened geopolitical risk, as it forces both institutions and citizens to reconsider what equal participation looks like, especially when national defence is no longer voluntary. Denmark’s decision could become a model for similar debates across the continent.

Questions to consider:

  1. Should military conscription be mandatory and gender-neutral across the EU and NATO?

  2. How do we balance equality with the ethics of compulsory service in liberal democracies?

  3. What does it mean to ask citizens to serve when trust in political institutions is eroding?

News source: Reuters

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From our guest

“It is hard to prove a counter-factual, but my life without running would have been different. I cannot recall how many times, throughout the years, a run, in silence, solved my intellectual crossroads or deadlocks. I am not the only one. To better understand the amazing effects of running, I recommend Haruki Murakami’s What I Talk About When I Talk About Running – a must read.”

Ricardo Borges de Castro, European and global affairs analyst
Ideas

  • The New York Times | The Interview: The Head of NATO Thinks President Trump ‘Deserves All the Praise’

  • The Atlantic | The Backdoor Way That Pete Hegseth Could Keep Women Out of Combat

  • Financial Times | European Security and the Limits of Trump Flattery

  • Foreign Policy | Gender Wars Are an Early Warning Sign for Authoritarianism

  • The Atlantic | Why Do So Many People Think Trump Is Good?

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Until next time,

Maria Luísa Moreira
Founder
The Diplomat’s Cabinet